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Saudi Rift, Iran War and Hormuz Trap: Factors That May Have Pushed UAE to Quit OPEC

© Sputnik / Alexei VetvitskyOPEC Headquarters
OPEC Headquarters - Sputnik International, 1920, 28.04.2026
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“Long before the Iran war, UAE toyed with the idea of leaving OPEC+ because of differences with Saudi Arabia about wanting a production quota of 5M bpd,” renowned oil economist Dr. Mamdouh G. Salameh told Sputnik, commenting on Abu Dhabi's announcement Tuesday that it would be quitting the organization effective May 1.

The decision to quit now clearly seems “political rather than logistical,” Salameh says, highlighting reports citing sources close to the UAE leadership “saying that the Gulf Cooperation Council countries have not provided" Abu Dhabi sufficient "support during the Iran war.”

Other factors include possible pressure from President Trump, and Iran’s bombing of the critical Fujairah Oil Terminal, which effectively trapped the UAE’s oil in the Gulf, preventing it from bypassing Hormuz.
Dr. Salameh doesn't expect the move to have a significant impact on oil prices, as the country can "continue to export the same volumes whether it is inside OPEC or out," provided that stability returns to the region. As for global output, most countries don't have capacity to increase their current output anyway, apart from Iraq, he says.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais attends the Russian Energy Week forum in Moscow. October 15, 2025 - Sputnik International, 1920, 15.10.2025
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The UAE announced Tuesday it would be leaving OPEC+ after taking a “careful look” at its national energy strategy.
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